The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies

The Party's Over is a good book to start with if you want a basic understanding about the Peak Oil energy discussion. It provides an holistic overview of the situation, how we got to it, and what some of the possible solutions are and possible scenarios that may result from it. I would recommend reading Hubbert's Peak before you read this book. I would also recommend you read Mr. Heinberg's follow up book: Power Down after you read The Party's Over. Also, if you are serious about informing yourself, read everything you can about Peak Oil before making up your mind about anything. If you are an experienced reader you will understand that Mr. Heinberg, like all authors, is not immune to having his own biases or personal political slants. And like all authors he can't eliminate it all from his writing. But that job of sifting and sorting has always really been that of the reader. So, ignore the critics who criticize this book because of political slants, etc. Whatever his political views are they do not detract from his basic arguments. His arguments are well-supported. He has extensive note and references. Also, ignore the critics who say the book is boring. The organization is clear and quite linear making it possible to grasp the basic concepts of a very complex and multi-dimensional subject. On average I read about 6-7 serious non-fiction books a month and in my opinion The Party's Over is the most important book I have read in some time. I think every person on the planet, but especially Americans should read this book if they want to understand the world situation and why it is the way it is. Whether or not you like what he has to say, whether or not you agree with what he has to say, whether or not you believe what he has to say is not the point. The point is that he has some very thought provoking analysis that if nothing else will make you think. And in my experience thinking rationally and analytically never hurt anyone.

Proponents of the "Peak Oil" theory argue that global oil production will "peak" (meaning that one half of all known reserves will have been recovered) at some point between 2000 and 2010, and afterwards production will irrevocably decline, never to rise again. However, the demand for oil will continue to rise and the spread between falling supply and rising demand will rapidly grow, as no adequate alternative energy source will be available to cover the shortfall. Doomsday will then be at hand. The price of petroleum, and petroleum-related products (i.e., just about everything) will skyrocket; transportation, communications, agriculture, indeed, every major industry in the world, will sputter to a standstill; the world economy will stagger and collapse; civil authority will dissolve; and the noisy, messy experiment that was industrial civilization will expire in a world-wide bloodbath, or "die-off," that will reduce the human population by 90 percent, or more, and will leave the planet devastated, ruined, and, quite possibly, dead.It would be easy to dismiss this apocalyptic vision as alarmist nonsense if only the "Peak Oil" proponents weren't so bloody convincing. By and large, they are a sensible, reasonable-sounding group of Cassandras, who dispense their grim forecasts as soberly as the subject allows. Virtually all of them rely upon the pioneering work M. King Hubbert, a research geophysicist who, in the mid-1950s, created a model to estimate the productive life of energy reserves. In 1956 Hubbert used his model to predict that oil production in the continental United States would peak sometime between 1966 and 1972. U.S. oil production did , in fact, peak in 1970 (and has declined by 50 percent since), and Hubbert and his forecasting model, dubbed "Hubbert's Peak," passed into the arcane lore of petroleum geologists. Other petroleum scientists have refined Hubbert's model and have applied it to global petroleum reserves. Although results differ depending upon the variables used by different researchers, the consensus is that the "Hubbert Peak" of worldwide oil reserves will occur sometime between 2004 and 2007. In other words, as I sit at my keyboard writing this review the high noon of petroleum-based industrial civilization may have come and gone, and the whole human enterprise may be inexorably descending into twilight and darkness. Sic transit gloria mundi - with a bullet.If the Cassandras are right, and the end of the world is imminent, it has received remarkably little coverage in the conventional media, although the internet hosts many excellent websites that the curious or concerned citizen may consult to learn as much as he or she would like about the post-petroleum world to come. Recently this state of affairs has started to change, and several good books have been published on "Peak Oil" and its consequences. First among these, is Richard Heinberg's "The Party's Over," a sober, detailed contribution to the litera

This volume begins with a discussion of what energy is and how it has been used to develop our industrial way of life. Brief histories of wood, coal, and oil use are also included. Much of this book centers around the amounts of oil, coal, and natural gas remaining to be harnessed in the future, with several experts giving their predictions for the peak production of the world production of oil, not far away by most accounts. The United States had it's oil production peak in 1970 (predicted in 1956 by M. King Hubbert) and has been in decline since, with a slight temporary increase in the 1980's due to Alaskan oil. As Richard Heinberg emphasizes continually in this book, the decline in world oil production seems imminent, along with the ensuing decline in national industrial economies which rely on oil, the United States being by far the biggest example. Per capita energy use by Americans is five times the world average, Heinberg writes, and he makes it abundantly clear that this waste and extravagance cannot continue much longer, and no number of Iraqi type excursions will make a difference. Heinberg writes that this decline of energy availability and use can be achieved peacefully with individual countries cooperating with each other, or violently with nations squabbling over the remaining oil. However, one thing stands out very clearly now, back in the 1970's during the initial problems with energy shortages due to the Arab oil embargo, it should have been a wake-up call to our leaders to develop sustainable energy sources then, it was not done, our short-sighted leaders failed us. But as Heinberg says, corporate leaders are also at fault, with their massive self-interest at risk, they could make less money if the country shifted more to alternate energy sources, and their lobby is very strong on Capital Hill in Washinton, D.C.. If that alternate energy program was began on a massive scale in the 1970's we would probably be in much better shape now, in terms of our energy future, but as Heinberg states in this book, at this late stage our options are limited. The massive industrial military machine the United States has is given attention here also, as Heinberg writes, this massive allocation of resources can and should be directed to more pressing concerns, the citizens of the United States do not need a military budget that equals the rest of the world combined (we are'nt going to fight the Soviets, that is now clear). This volume also covers alternate energy sources today, and what they can do to help us in the future, again, as Heinberg says, we have began with too little and too late to prevent a collapse of our industrial way of life. How large of a collapse will it be? No one is certain. Heinberg also touches on the subject of overpopulation and immigration. Did you know that approximately 90% of the population growth in the United States over the next 50 years will be due to immigration? This is an area that has been neglected, and as

Richard Heinberg has done a tremendous service for all of us in America and the industrial world. Most Americans have known for years of risks associated with dependence on "foreign oil", but few Americans know that the critical point in human use of oil as an energy source is upon us. Few Americans ever heard of Hubbert's Peak in terms of American oil production, much less world oil production. Thus, industry and government have been able to use aspects of the truth (there is still one trillion barrels of recoverable oil underground) to obfuscate a critical fact -- the end of the entire age of oil as a primary fuel for human industry is within sight.This fact has enormous (world altering) ramifications, as Heinberg demonstrates in his well-researched book. Foreign policy, domestic policy, ecology, wildlife conservation, and the entire American "way of life" are at issue. The information offered in this book is certainly known by government officials and undoubtedly has a direct influence, a primary influence, on the War on Terrorism, the War on Iraq, the U.S. Stock Market, and, increasingly on public debate in the U.S. The fact that the U.S. Government, under administrations of either party, have not provided knowledge of the issues discussed in this book speaks poorly of the future of American democracy, and the absolute, dire need for American to educate themselves by reading this book and others like it.To his credit, Heinberg explores opposing and alternate views of the data that support his conclusions. Rather than deny or ignore the alternate views, Heinberg explains them and persuades the reader by virtue of superior argumentation. This adds to his credibility, while diminishing the credibility of the doubters of his arguments.In the current War on Iraq and War on Terrorism, many Americans and other citizens of the world found governmental explanations for precipitate U.S. military actions to be of doubtful authenticity and perhaps indicative of some hidden agenda. Heinberg's book helps understand what the basis of this hidden agenda is, and his book underscores the fact that this is not a temporary situation, but tied to the ultimate depletion of oil as a usable resource for the "energizing" of human industry and societies.This book will be a bellweather book for the understanding of America's place in the world, and humanity's prospects for continued prosperity on a rapidly changing planet. It would be impossible to overemphasize the importance of this book.